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Relative Performance Index - Rose Bowl Predictor

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(@nitwit248)
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https://fortheblogy.com/analytics-basic-stats-and-recent-historic-context-the-abcs-of-penn-state-football-rose-bowl-preview/

Our analytics guy used Relative Performance Index to forecast statistical output and a final score between Penn State-Utah. We ran this formula for the entire 2021 bowl season and it hit 64 percent ATS...which means the same algorithm will probable bomb predicting this game.



   
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(@southern-psu-fan)
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I’m looking for a bigger ass kicking coming down on Utah. 38-17 Penn State. Winning it for Franco baby



   
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 RIP
(@rip)
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Can you imagine the show our 2 freshman running backs could put on if they had a blocking full back like Franco leading the way for them!



   
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(@roaminglion)
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Utah gave Ohio State all they could handle last year, so I don't expect a blow out like most of you. Ohio State actually needed a big 4th quarter to win it. Utah is a good team, I don't know why some are dismissing them.



   
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(@southern-psu-fan)
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@roaminglion Penn State is the underdog but I just believe we’ll give ‘em a beat down. That QB better be ready because we will be coming after him. Just get the win though


This post was modified 3 years ago by Southern psu fan

   
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Tae Beutel
(@tae-buetel)
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Just watched a replay of the season opening Utah vs Florida game, Utah appeared to be a determined, well-coached and athletic team.  No doubt they improved over the season but the Florida QB was able to make big plays when needed.

Clifford was the “X-factor” for Arkansas last year.  He was also the “X-factor” in numerous other Penn State losses.  I’m hoping he is not the “X-factor” for Utah this year.

 

Clifford should never been the starter at the beginning of the year, it should have been Christian Veilleux.  



   
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 RIP
(@rip)
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@tae-buetel 

Then you'd be happy with 2 more losses?



   
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(@southern-psu-fan)
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@tae-buetel  I don’t know what to think about CV tae. He was third on the depth chart and I honestly thought he would challenge Clifford for the starting job. Maybe he ain’t as good as we thought because it was just one game and it was Rutgers. I just don’t know 😂


This post was modified 3 years ago by Southern psu fan

   
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Tae Beutel
(@tae-buetel)
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@rip not sure how you consider your leap in logic to be valid but please allow me to start the Rose Bowl game-day chat early by posting “hit the shower Clifford, you stink”

 

(author’s note:  I hope I am wrong)



   
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Tae Beutel
(@tae-buetel)
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@southern-psu-fan my point is that Franklin missed an opportunity to build for the future.  Clifford has been a disappointment for many years and ha weaknesses were evident once again this year.  He was the best option for several years so Franklin was correct to play him.  This year was a different story.  After the bowl game last year, he should have been told that he wasn’t going to start this year.  Franklin missed a great opportunity to create a foundation for the future.

 

I hope he has a great bowl game and proves me wrong.  There are always outliers but relying on an outlier is rarely productive.



   
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(@roaminglion)
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Posted by: @tae-buetel

@southern-psu-fan my point is that Franklin missed an opportunity to build for the future.  Clifford has been a disappointment for many years and ha weaknesses were evident once again this year.  He was the best option for several years so Franklin was correct to play him.  This year was a different story.  After the bowl game last year, he should have been told that he wasn’t going to start this year.  Franklin missed a great opportunity to create a foundation for the future.

 

I hope he has a great bowl game and proves me wrong.  There are always outliers but relying on an outlier is rarely productive.

So you think starting a kid 3rd on the depth chart is building for the future?

I consider letting the future sit and watch, get better, put on weight, and become acclimated to college while backing up a 6th year starter a much better way to build for the future.

 



   
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(@southern-psu-fan)
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I honestly believe if CV or Allar was better than Clifford and one of those 2 QB’s gave us a better chance to win and Yurcich told James Franklin that I believe James Franklin would’ve started one of those guys even if James Franklin thought Clifford was better. I believe James Franklin and Yurcich thought Clifford was the man and after the last 2 years going 11-11 Penn St needed this season losing drags a team down and this team is playing with a lot of confidence right now going into next year. Just my opinion but if we can get a Rose Bowl win and get to 11-2 it help with recruiting and everything else that comes with winning but ole southern don’t believe in throwing away ANY wins the goal is ALWAYS to win as many games possible and if a player gets his feelings hurt tough chit. It’s just what I was taught baby 😂   The late great Dale Earnhardt a 7 time champion in 1997 flipped the car at the Daytona 500 a race he had never won at that time destroyed the car and it shook him up but when they brought the car back around all 4 wheels was still on the car and he asked them will the car crank and they didn’t know so he went back into a wrecked race car and cranked the car and went back on the track and finished the race…..never give up baby on trying to get the win!



   
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Tae Beutel
(@tae-buetel)
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@roaminglion you made some points that support my argument / position, thank you.



   
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(@roaminglion)
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Posted by: @tae-buetel

@roaminglion you made some points that support my argument / position, thank you.

I'd like to know how anything I said supported starting a kid who couldn't beat out our 6th year starter or the true freshman that just arrived.

 



   
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(@lionbacker99)
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@tae-buetel Anybody that believes the coaches keep the better players on the bench is not being honest with themselves. We do not see these kids in practice or the film room to be able to make evaluations on who should or shouldn’t play. Franklin had something to prove this year and he put the team in the best position to win now and I can appreciate that. It’s a win now culture in college football. Coaches aren’t afforded an indefinite amount of time to develop kids anymore or the fan base eats them alive and kids transfer out. The team has an opportunity to win 11 games, win a Rose Bowl, and end the season as a top 10 team after being unranked to start the season. Maybe enjoy the ride and give the coaches some credit for the momentum the program has right now. On a side note, Allar got valuable experience this year. He looked really good at times and really average a few times towards the end of the year. I think the coaches did a fine job managing the roster this year. 


This post was modified 3 years ago by Lionbacker99

   
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 RIP
(@rip)
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There's more to being a successful QB than what catches the eye of us casual fans.  I agree with 99 and I too think the coaches went with the QB who gave the team the best shot at winning.  Next year will be Allar's year and I hope he still gets the love everybody was throwing his way this year! 



   
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(@psujoe)
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Gonna be interesting to see what happens with Veilleux at sPitt. I believe Nardooshi is going to eventually go all in with CV and hope he has a Heisman candidate season like Pickett did. Since PSU and sPitt don’t play it would be the ultimate way of sticking it to PSU and it will look really bad for JF.

 

55-10



   
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(@lionbacker99)
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@psujoe If Nardooshi thought CV was Heisman quality, he wouldn’t have recruited the hometown kid, and former BC starting QB, to Pitt from the portal also. 



   
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(@psujoe)
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Posted by: @lionbacker99

@psujoe If Nardooshi thought CV was Heisman quality, he wouldn’t have recruited the hometown kid, and former BC starting QB, to Pitt from the portal also. 

CV has 3 years of eligibility and the hometown kid has 1. And since when does a coach only recruit one player at a time?

 



   
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Tae Beutel
(@tae-buetel)
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@roaminglion   You wrote “letting the future sit and watch, get better, put on weight, and become acclimated to college while backing up ….”

I agree with those comments and those comments support the argument I was making.  

Where we disagree is on Clifford as the starter.  I think Veilleux should have been the starter with Clifford as back-up.  Allar could have still gotten experience but taken a redshirt year.  Clifford would have been valuable to the others on the sideline and maybe Penn State would go into 2023 with an experienced QB to compliment the run game.  As is, all eggs are now in the Allar basket who has limited experience and no experience behind him.



   
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Tae Beutel
(@tae-buetel)
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@lionbacker99 , I never wrote or implied that coaches keep “better players” on the bench.

 

Penn State won games this year despite the ineptness by Clifford, not because of Clifford.

 

You are correct that we do not see the kids in practice.  Our only reliable source of information is what we see on game day.  From what I have seen, I believe that some kids are much better in practice than they are during the games.  They look the part but when it comes time to perform, the are unable.



   
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(@lionbacker99)
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Posted by: @tae-buetel

@roaminglion   You wrote “letting the future sit and watch, get better, put on weight, and become acclimated to college while backing up ….”

I agree with those comments and those comments support the argument I was making.  

Where we disagree is on Clifford as the starter.  I think Veilleux should have been the starter with Clifford as back-up.  Allar could have still gotten experience but taken a redshirt year.  Clifford would have been valuable to the others on the sideline and maybe Penn State would go into 2023 with an experienced QB to compliment the run game.  As is, all eggs are now in the Allar basket who has limited experience and no experience behind him.

So you wanted the third string QB to be the starter? The kid with 1 game starting experience should have started over the 6th year senior and the #1 rated QB recruit in the country that teammates were raving about from practice? Man, Franklin can never do anything right in the eyes of many, but this takes it to another level. What makes you think the 6th year Sr or the prize recruit wouldn’t have portaled out if the program had that happened? Then you would have ripped Franklin for starting Veilleux. The scenario you referenced may have been feasible in the 80’s or 90’s but that ship has sailed. It’s win now at all cost for college football coaches.

 



   
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(@southern-psu-fan)
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@lionbacker99  now that’s ole southern talk…win at all cost 99,  it’s dog eat dog lol



   
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(@roaminglion)
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Posted by: @tae-buetel

@roaminglion   You wrote “letting the future sit and watch, get better, put on weight, and become acclimated to college while backing up ….”

I agree with those comments and those comments support the argument I was making.  

Where we disagree is on Clifford as the starter.  I think Veilleux should have been the starter with Clifford as back-up.  Allar could have still gotten experience but taken a redshirt year.  Clifford would have been valuable to the others on the sideline and maybe Penn State would go into 2023 with an experienced QB to compliment the run game.  As is, all eggs are now in the Allar basket who has limited experience and no experience behind him.

Got it... but I still don't think Franklin and Yurcich put CV at 3rd string for nothing. Most likely the other two were better.

 



   
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(@southern-psu-fan)
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I want to get the win so bad I should’ve called myself Southern Switzer 😂 just win baby lol



   
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