I talk to many people every day who have serious anxiety about COVID. To be honest, in early days of it, I shared that concern based on the best available data at the time which hypothesized 20% hospitalization and 3-5% fatality.
But when antibody testing became available, it was immediately apparent that those stats were off by an order of magnitude. According to CDC, overall infection fatality rate is now believed to be on order of 0.27% and hospitalization is closer to 2%. Importantly, both stats are heavily driven by the very elderly with serious underlying conditions. For those under 50, CDC says that less than 1/3000 who become infected will die from Covid. Also important to note that it’s not a random killer so if you are at risk of being that 1 in 3000 person, you should already know you are seriously ill with or without having Covid.
In effort to put this in perspective for ordinary people, I thought I’d find some numbers associated with another risky activity we all take part in and make a comparison: driving.
https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/…/P…/ViewPublication/810853
On average, 80 people die in car crashes every single day in USA. 75% or 60 of them are under the age of 50.
Right now, sadly, 500 people per day are dying from covid in USA. However, only 2% or ~10 of those daily deaths are under the age of 50.
So if you are under 50 you are 6X as likely to die from a car wreck right now than you are to die from covid. For those under 25, the multiplier is more like 25X in favor of car death...
Also note that Covid deaths have been dropping by half every 30 days as immunity increases and Rt (contagiousness) decreases. Therefore, by Aug 1, those under 50 will be 12X as likely to die in car wreck as by covid and those under 25 will be 50X or so...
For very old and very sick people the calculus is different and we should all strive to protect those people. But for those otherwise young and healthy Americans who find the covid anxiety overwhelming, I hope this helps create some perspective.
Drive safe. Buckle up. Breathe easy.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavir…/…/hcp/planning-scenarios.html
I talk to many people every day who have serious anxiety about COVID. To be honest, in early days of it, I shared that concern based on the best available data at the time which hypothesized 20% hospitalization and 3-5% fatality.
But when antibody testing became available, it was immediately apparent that those stats were off by an order of magnitude. According to CDC, overall infection fatality rate is now believed to be on order of 0.27% and hospitalization is closer to 2%. Importantly, both stats are heavily driven by the very elderly with serious underlying conditions. For those under 50, CDC says that less than 1/3000 who become infected will die from Covid. Also important to note that it’s not a random killer so if you are at risk of being that 1 in 3000 person, you should already know you are seriously ill with or without having Covid.
In effort to put this in perspective for ordinary people, I thought I’d find some numbers associated with another risky activity we all take part in and make a comparison: driving.
https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/…/P…/ViewPublication/810853
On average, 80 people die in car crashes every single day in USA. 75% or 60 of them are under the age of 50.
Right now, sadly, 500 people per day are dying from covid in USA. However, only 2% or ~10 of those daily deaths are under the age of 50.
So if you are under 50 you are 6X as likely to die from a car wreck right now than you are to die from covid. For those under 25, the multiplier is more like 25X in favor of car death...
Also note that Covid deaths have been dropping by half every 30 days as immunity increases and Rt (contagiousness) decreases. Therefore, by Aug 1, those under 50 will be 12X as likely to die in car wreck as by covid and those under 25 will be 50X or so...
For very old and very sick people the calculus is different and we should all strive to protect those people. But for those otherwise young and healthy Americans who find the covid anxiety overwhelming, I hope this helps create some perspective.
Drive safe. Buckle up. Breathe easy.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavir…/…/hcp/planning-scenarios.html
Good points.....I agree that younger people will do well.
But what they also need to understand is that there are 124 Million of them driving and sooner or later, they will crash into one of the 45 million drivers over the age of 65! So it would be nice if they limited all of those unnecessary trips down the street for awhile! Obey the speed limit, stop at all red lights and be considerate even when they have a green light!
OMPA
Thanks for the info. I agree it is a much smaller risk for younger, healthy people, however, the risk is still there and the risk of carrying it to others (less healthy) is the more concerning issue.
Just curious, who is the source of your info? You stated it was an ex PSU wrestler?
Also, while the death risk is lower in PA currently, other states like FL, TX, and AZ are looking pretty silly right now for not taking this virus seriously when we were getting hammered with it back in March and April in the NE. You would have thought they would have watched the NE and learned and prepared, but sadly, they didn’t. I guess they thought one day it was just going to go away.
https://apple.news/AAB4qCf2ATJKoKTVM_rMKVg
Lastly, since it is nearly impossible to discuss this topic without it leading to politics, maybe this and any subsequent posts on the topic should be moved to the water cooler?
@lionbacker99 Yep, covid and politics go hand in hand, unfortunately. I'll Second moving to the water cooler!
Oh to be young and invincible again. Too bad it takes so many years to smarten us up.
@lionbacker99 Yep, covid and politics go hand in hand, unfortunately. I'll Second moving to the water cooler!
Oh to be young and invincible again. Too bad it takes so many years to smarten us up.
As JoePa once said, "Youth is a disease. Fortunately it cures itself."
