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Game by Game Win-Loss Probability

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(@nitwit248)
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Interesting read (below). No clue how the math works, exactly. But it's interesting nonetheless. Surprised his formula has Iowa as a tougher game than Wisconsin.

 

https://fortheblogy.com/analytics-basic-stats-and-recent-historic-context-the-abcs-of-penn-state-football-forecasting-the-nittany-lions-2021-season/



   
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(@southern-psu-fan)
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I also believe Iowa will be a tough game than Wisconsin. 



   
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(@roaminglion)
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All 3 big games are on the road, that's tough. If we go 11-1 that's a HUGE accomplishment having had to go to OSU, Wisky, and Iowa.



   
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Forum Titan
(@forum-titan)
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Tricky schedule, probably in the top 5 on the map for toughest schedule.  



   
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Underlion
(@underlion)
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I always figure Wisc early is not a good deal.  I mean they are simple and execute.  Not as much improvement thru the first games because they start ahead.  Good news is they are easy to predict.  Iowa is similar.  We are a bit of a wild card.



   
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(@southern-psu-fan)
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@underlion  we’re better than both teams Wisconsin and Iowa take care of the ball and it’s 2 wins. We have to much talent and speed just take care of the ball!



   
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(@mtnittanylion)
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Posted by: @nitwit248

Interesting read (below). No clue how the math works, exactly. But it's interesting nonetheless. Surprised his formula has Iowa as a tougher game than Wisconsin.

 

https://fortheblogy.com/analytics-basic-stats-and-recent-historic-context-the-abcs-of-penn-state-football-forecasting-the-nittany-lions-2021-season/

That's a lot of close games with teams like Maryland, Ball State ,Michigan and Michigan State. I just wan them to get through Wisconsin with a win and get the heck back home!! I think we will all know what they have after week one.  Just so hard to predict anything after last season. Just like we never saw an 0-5 start, we could see a 7-0 start. I personally feel they have a much better team heading into week one than they did last year. How good is yet to be seen.  

I am putting a lot faith in the new OC.  He has produced some high scoring Offenses, so hopefully we see an up tempo offense against Whisky!

 

GO STATE!



   
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 RIP
(@rip)
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I think the Wisconsin game will make or break the season for us.  I have a good feeling about Clifford & our new OC,  Agreed, the key will be to take care of the ball and avoid stupid mistakes.  Also, Pry & the defense need to step it up and come up with stops on 3rd and long!



   
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(@southern-psu-fan)
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Auburn scares me more than Wisconsin. Auburn players are as good as ours.


This post was modified 5 years ago by Southern psu fan

   
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Tae Beutel
(@tae-buetel)
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@southern-psu-fan  and Auburn has a new coaching staff since they booted Malzahn.  As a UCF grad, I was disappointed to see him end up at UCF.



   
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Forum Titan
(@forum-titan)
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Auburn.....do they have a transfer QB ? What school did he transfer from 



   
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(@southern-psu-fan)
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I believe Bo Nix is back and they have a stud RB but so do we. These games are what it’s all about.


This post was modified 5 years ago by Southern psu fan

   
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(@the-funeral-director)
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Auburn isn't as good as Wisconsin is and couple that with it being the first game and in their building which is a very difficult place to play and the opener at Wisky is without a doubt the most critical game of the season without a doubt...If Penn State can win that one I believe they will be unbeaten heading into the shoe...I don't believe Auburn is as good as Penn State is personnel wise and I believe Penn State should handle em by a couple of touchdowns...That opener at Wisky is going to be a very good barometer of where Penn State is as a football team...I also believe Wisky is a better football team from a personnel standpoint than Auburn is...Time will tell and we will all know these answers very soon...



   
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(@southern-psu-fan)
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@the-funeral-director   I don’t think so FD these Wisconsin teams the last 5 years ain’t what they were 10 years ago.



   
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 RIP
(@rip)
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@southern-psu-fan 

You're right Southern.  They're not as good as they were back in the days of Barry Alvarez, but Camp Randall is still a tough place to get a W.



   
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(@navylion)
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(@the-funeral-director)
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Well I don't think Auburn is as good as they were in years gone by either Southern...Penn State going out to Madison is a tough assignment...Playing Auburn at home to me is a much easier assignment...I fully expect Penn State to beat both of em by at least 2 touchdowns...After Wisky and Ball State we will have a pretty good idea of what this team is...



   
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